01/07/2020
NATIONWIDE NOTES FIRST ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE FALL IN 8 YEARS
The average house price in the UK dropped 0.1 per cent on an annual basis in June, Nationwide says, the first negative reading since December 2012.
On a monthly basis, house prices fell 1.4 per cent. This leaves the average house price at £216,403.
In May, Nationwide reported a monthly change of negative 1.7 per cent and an annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent.
The lender levels two obvious reasons at June’s tick downwards: “Economic output fell by an unprecedented 25 per cent over the course of March and April – almost four times more than during the entire financial crisis,” says Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner.
Second is the lockdown affecting housing market activity. Although with these “due to be eased in the weeks ahead, housing market activity is likely to edge higher in the near term, albeit remaining below pre-pandemic levels,” Gardner adds.
Nationwide believes that in the medium term, the outlook is “highly uncertain”, dependent as it is on the performance of the wider economy.
James Pendleton property expert Lucy Pendleton says that, “the public is repeatedly hearing that GDP has collapsed and we face a worse recession than the global financial crisis but that soundtrack isn’t translating into a house price correction at the moment.
“That kind of resilience would normally be seen as a sign of strength and confidence but we’re going to have to wait for the furlough scheme to end to find out what this market is really made of.”
And Glenhawk chief executive Guy Harrington has a downbeat view, too. He says: “The Covid-19 pandemic has well and truly brought the UK housing market to its knees. We are in the midst of an unprecedented economic crisis, with consumer confidence at rock bottom.
“The raft of government measures designed to keep us afloat, coupled with undoubted pent up demand and longer-term sectoral tailwinds, may support a V-shaped recovery, but the near-term outlook is highly uncertain.”
PayProp chief sales officer Neil Cobbold takes a more specialist-focused view: “Many buy-to-let investors and landlords will be monitoring the market closely at the moment, looking for opportunities to expand their portfolios – especially if market conditions scupper continued house price recovery and growth.”
“The economic impact of Covid-19 could mean that more people have to rent for longer as they find it more difficult to save for a deposit to buy a home. This will be frustrating for prospective first-time buyers and housebuilders, but will provide landlords with confidence that rental demand will remain stable for the foreseeable future,” he explains.
“Meanwhile, the gradual scaling back of the furlough scheme could present further financial issues for prospective buyers, mortgage holders, private tenants and their landlords.”
By Gary Adams, Mortgage Strategy 1st July 2020