
01/04/2025
The Japanese government has released updated projections on the potential damage from a major Nankai Trough megaquake. In the worst-case scenario, approximately 298,000 people could lose their lives, and 2.35 million buildings could collapse.
While the most severe destruction would occur in prefectures directly adjacent to the trough, Kumamoto would also experience intense shaking, potentially leading to significant damage and casualties. Furthermore, regions that are not catastrophically affected would need to provide support to the hardest-hit areas, creating a nationwide challenge.
Unfortunately, it is only a matter of time before the next major earthquake strikes the Nankai Trough. The best we can do is prepare as much as possible and practice disaster mitigation - even when traveling. Simple actions, such as identifying emergency exits in hotels and understanding the risks of the areas we visit, can make a huge difference.
The Cabinet Office released on March 31 slightly lower death and disaster projections from an expected Nankai Trough megaquake than calculated a decade ago, but the numbers remain horrific and far short of the government's targets.