ATLsherpa

12/22/2024

Just yesterday, two friends from Atlanta asked me how things were going, here in Asheville. They also added that the news feed about Asheville and storm related impacts has really dried up in recent weeks.

While sad, that makes total sense to me. Unless you're here, the news cycle moves on. People have their own lives / issues to worry about.

As someone who lives about one mile from complete devastation, I can tell you that this disaster (and I don't use that word lightly) has had a profound impact on the City of Asheville and especially its people. I also work at the Home Depot in East Asheville. Our store was a critical command and supply center for the days/weeks after the flood, both for residents and first responders. For several days, I met and spoke with search and rescue personnel who were here from across the country.

Since then, I have heard dozens of stories that have had a profound impact on me. All of us have. These are stories about the loss of life and property that I never, in my life, thought I would hear. Many are stories that I will never share. They are both heartbreaking and harrowing.

The local ECONOMY has been crushed. This article speaks to that but I can share some personal insights and first-hand accounts from locals.

Understandably, tourism has dried up. As a result, many of the folks who worked in the hospitality industry (hotels, restaurants, breweries, etc.) have left the area. They simply cannot afford to live here due the the significant drop in income. That's going to make it extremely difficult for these businesses to get back on their feet when the tourists eventually come back. Realistically, that is still 6-9 months away, at least.

I live in an upscale apartment complex in East Asheville. In late September, there were 4 vacant apartments in a complex of 212 units. Today, there are 60 vacant apartments and that number is rising at the rate of 5+ move-outs per week.

You might be wondering why so many people are leaving. My personal observation is that many people (esp young professionals who are fully remote) moved to places like Asheville, Bend, Boise, etc. during the pademic. I have spoken to many of them. In one form or another, they all said that they moved to Asheville because "they thought it would be a cool place to live for a few years."

Sadly, Asheville is no longer cool. It doesn't statisfy that intangible lifestyle desire that they craved when they moved here. So, some of them are leaving. I think the number of people who fall into that category is higher than most people think. To be totally honest, I have started formulating a plan to move as well. Not right away, but probably in late 2025 or early 2026.

In the meantime, we will carry on, as the late David Crosby once sang; and do the best we can to make the world a better place.

Thanks for listening.

FROM THE ARTICLE

Vic Isley, president of Explore Asheville, expects Buncombe County to lose nearly $600 million in revenue this winter on travel, lodging and related spending.

“The last three months of the year are the peak of tourism season and hospitality in western North Carolina,” she said. “We need more visitors to come and support our local businesses.”

The county's unemployment rate is the highest in the state, at 8.8%, up from 2.5% in September, according to the state Commerce Department.

Visitors usually flock to the Blue Ridge Mountains this time of year for festivities, but a cleanup effort that could take years to complete has left businesses struggling to survive.

12/21/2024

Definitely not what the Urbanistas want to hear but I totally get this and, if I was 20 years younger, I would be all over it. Remember, there's gold in them 'thar hills, just north of ATL.

According to Stacee Lynn Bell, 60, the self-styled Barndominium Lady, more people wanted bigger homes, more distant neighbors, land to raise chickens and grow vegetables, and an environment “not as hustle-bustle.” Since 2020, Ms. Bell and her 19-person team at the Barndominium Company have designed over 1,000 bespoke barndo plans in 41 states, and she recently hired two more designers to keep up with the craze.

Ms. Bell herself lives in a barndo, about an hour north of Houston near Sam Houston National Forest.

Barndos, large, open-plan structures, have surged in popularity with the recent exodus from urban to rural areas.

12/21/2024

Rare and trippy video from 1971. Jungle Strut is a DEEEEP CUT from Santana III.

Personally, I don't think this album got the attention it deserved. It came on the heels of the highly acclaimed, Abraxas and their monster debut album.

Together, these first three albums define Santana's "Latin Rock" phase. This is early 70s straight-ahead rock at its finest. By now, Santana was a finely tuned band featuring complex percussions, blistering guitar work and immensely pleasing melodies. Perfect for those of us who some affectionately refer to as the the "b**g generation."

Treat yourself to an uninterrupted session of Santana III. As always, this music sounds best with high fidelity 🎧.

A b**g hit wouldn't hurt either ✌️ 🎸 👌

is an American rock band formed in San Francisco in 1966 by Mexican-American guitarist and songwriter Carlos Santana. The band h...

12/21/2024

Climbing the frontier of utility*...

OpenAI today also revealed more details of techniques used to align o1. The new method, known as deliberative alignment, involves training a model with a set of safety specifications and having it reason about the nature of the request as well as its own answer it is given to interrogate whether it may contravene its guardrails. The approach makes the model more difficult to trick into misbehavior because its reasoning process can root out attempts at mischief.

Large language models can answer many questions remarkably well, but they often stumble when asked to solve puzzles that require basic math or logic. OpenAI’s o1 incorporates training on step-by-step problem-solving that makes an AI model better able to tackle these types of problems.

Models that reason over problems will also be important as companies seek to deploy so-called AI agents that can reliably figure out how to solve complex problems on a users’ behalf.

“This really signifies that we are really climbing the frontier of utility,” Mark Chen, senior vice president of research at OpenAI said on today’s livestream.

A day after Google announced its first model capable of reasoning over problems, OpenAI has upped the stakes with an improved version of its own.

12/21/2024

Repeat after me: "Tomme de Fontenay"

Lucky for you, the shop I ordered this blissful cheese from is located in Atlanta. So, you should be able to make it (and the other three cheeses listed below) part of your holidays festivities, should you be so inclined.

As luck would have it, Capella Cheese is a short walk from SweetWater Brewing Company. If it was me, I would start at the cheese shop and work my way back to SBC and do some impromptu beer and cheese pairings.

In any event, I ordered four cheeses from Capalla last week and all four are amazing. The only one I had ever had previously was Thomasville Tomme from Sweet Grass Dairy. Being that I am particularly fond of these Alpine style cheeses, I order two other "tommes" and a goat cheese from Switzerland.

1. Tomme de Fontenay
2. Tomme aux Fleurs
3. Thomasville Tomme
4. Gourmino Goat Cheese

DON'T MISS THIS: I asked my new BF (ChatGPT) to give me the lowdown because that's what explorers do. They explore. I'll share the link to my chat in the comments below.

PRO TIP: You don't need to serve them on crackers, or flat bread and you don't need to smother them with honey or jams. I mean, you can, but that totally defeats the purpose of buying world-class cheeses. MAYBE add some honey but FIRST try them "nekked" so you can really TASTE the cheeses, the nuances, the aromas. As the French like to say, Vive la Difference. Make note of la difference!

Hope you enjoy the cheeses. Say "Hey" to the folks at Capella and tell them thanks for sending my cheeses so quickly.

Produced in the Vendée region. It is a goat cheese with a special selection of herbs and spices made by Rodolphe Le Meunier. Cheese with a circular shape, a white dough and covered with Provencal herbs, white pepper, juniper berries and red pepper.MILK TYPE: Goat ORIGIN: Vendée, FrancePASTEURIZATI...

12/16/2024

Pathetic that we need to post signs like this, but I love the creativity that went into it and agree with every word. Especially, the frowning part.

12/15/2024

Quip of the Day: "Just short of obnoxious."

Attention has become fractured. Audiences, siloed in their social-media feeds and choose-your-own-adventure streaming sites, are ever harder to reach. Only by partnering up, like “Barbie” did by collaborating with 165 brands last year, can a promotional campaign become truly inescapable. “Wicked” went even bigger, teaming up with over 400 brands to ensure a saturation that would be, in the words of Universal Pictures’ chief marketing officer Michael Moses, “just short of obnoxious.”

The Marketing Hurricane of ‘Wicked’ Says a Lot About Our Culture

The movie’s marketing push, involving 400 tie-ins with other brands, shows how our culture has become littered with increasingly formulaic and meaningless collaborations.

12/14/2024

Sharing access to this article because the insights you will gain may save your some financial pain and heartache. As you read it, think about your own feelings right now. If you supported DJT, you probably feel vindicated; elated. If you opposed him, you probably think the world is coming to an end. Both views are flawed, IMO. Hopefully, you have many years left to navigate this world. One of your greatest threats are not the political dynamics of the day but your fellow humans. Specifically, their behavior. Remember that Sir Isaac Newton was, is and will always be right. Read this article carefully...

Atwater grew interested in the role of confidence in markets through his experience of the 2008-09 financial crisis. He had helped build, then ran, J.P. Morgan’s asset-backed securities operation in the 1980s, so he was well acquainted with the mechanics of securitization. The question was, How did it all unravel in 2008? And why did markets bottom in March of the following year?

“When confidence is high, investors embrace abstraction,” he says. ”At lows it becomes all about tangibility, close proximity, which is why we stuff cash in our mattresses. And we see these clear, consistent behavioral patterns over time.” Atwater credits the work of behavioral finance researchers, especially that of the 2002 Nobel economics laureate, Daniel Kahneman.

One example of such an abstraction is the notorious “CDO-squared” products of the mortgage bubble that helped kick off the financial crisis. Collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, slice and dice mortgages into tranches of progressively increasing risk. A CDO-squared packages other CDOs into an opaque bundle of risks. They eventually blew up.

Today, Atwater observes a proliferation of similar “crowd-satisfying offerings,” such as ever-more specialized exchange-traded funds that utilize leverage and combine stocks to increase risk and potential returns, rather than to diversify and reduce risk. “One of the things I see over and over, at the very top, is that Wall Street works like the I Love Lucy candy conveyor belt to deliver as much as the crowd wants and can consume,” he says. “I see that today in all of the financial turducken being served up.”

Another example: the proliferation of meme cryptocoins. Forgive the vulgarity, but the accepted term for coins of no value is sh*tcoin. The latest example (apologies again) is fartcoin. Not only do these exist, but Atwater retweeted an observation from Hedgeye that fartcoin’s market value totaled $564.84 million this past Thursday, which was greater than 38% of all American publicly traded companies.

Market observer Peter Atwater calls it the vindication trade, in which animal spirits were unleashed by the presidential election. But after Inauguration Day, he warns, things are bound to get more difficult.

12/12/2024

Down to 20 days until this FB page rides off into the sunset. In case you haven't noticed, this page has been a forum I use to share ideas, news and random observations as they come across my radar screen.

My RADAR SCREEN consists of various news channels including CNBC, the WSJ, Barron's, the NYT, CNET, Wired. Until recently, it also included the AJC and ABC. My ATL-based news subscriptions expired earlier this year, which explains the dearth of ATL-based news you've seen on this feed in recent months.

My WORLD VIEW has always been broad, very broad. I love learning new things and connecting the dots. 35 years in the investment industry will train your brain to go deep; to figure out the cause and effect of things.

To me more specific, the ROOT CAUSE of why things happen or don't happen. I spent thousands of hours studying human behavior. How people do what they do. Why they do what they do. People, as Jim Morrison correctly concluded, are strange.

Tonight, I want to share an observation (prediction) which has probably occured to you in some form or another already. The article below crystalized this for me. Maybe it will for you, too.

Regardless of how we feel about America (and God knows I have some pretty strong feelings about this country) the fact remains that the USA is the envy of billions of people around the world. They may not respect our politics or the attitude of some Americans when they travel overseas, but they envy our economy and, to a large extent, our lifestyle. They also enjoy our freedom and the relative peace and public safety that exists in America.

I know that sounds laughable, given the pervasive gun violence that runs deep through America's veins. I have spoken at nauseum about, what I believe, is the root cause of that violence and most of America's social challenges, for that matter. They are called Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs). I'll share Dr. Burke-Harris' Ted talk *again* in hopes that SOMEONE will see this and GET SERIOUS about addressing what I have often referred to as the "Mother of All Root Causes."

For the record, I don't own any guns. In fact, the only firearm I have even held in my hands was a BB gun and that was when I was about ten. But, I digress.

HERE'S MY OBSERVATION (PREDICTION)

If you have enjoyed the booming stock and real estate markets of the past 10, 20, 30 years, you ain't seen nothing yet. Over the next 10-20 years (or until we self-destruct) hundreds of millions of people are going to make their way to America. They are going to spend money here, they are going to invest here. They will invest in businesses and real estate. They will consum mjuch of what America produces; everything from Big Macs to 777's. They will visit Mickey & Minnie, they will splurge in the Big Apple, they will marvel at Grand Canyon and gasp at the Redwoods. And, yes, millions of visitors will seek out ATLANTA because of the remarkable progress and success this (your) city has made in its very short 178-year history. Many of those visitors will invest in and/or move there, as well.

IN THE MEANTIME...
(and this tsunami has already been unleashed) they are going to buy the stocks of American companies, especially the tech giants (aka, "Magnificent 7") because this is THE BEST WAY to participate in America's prosperity. In it's breathtaking research and innovation.

One of the first things you learn when you get in the investment business is this: NEVER BET AGAINST AMERICA! What they really mean is, don't bet against the American economy. In spite of its considerable shortcomings and the inequities that flow from them, CAPITALISM is the engine that drives America forward. And, for better or worse, it is also the engine that provides security to much of the world. Think Aerospace and Defense industries. Think Foreign Aid. Think American volunteerism and philanthropy. Think American Colleges & Universities.

Here's muy conclusion in three words: INVEST IN AMERICA. Buy American real estate. Buy American stocks (they call them "equities" because when you buy stock in a company, you become an owner in that company). HOLD THEM AS LONG AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN.

NEVER. BET. AGAINST. AMERICA. The next 10-20 years are going to be AMAZING.

FROM THE ARTICLE...

“When you think of India, it has the characteristics of China, which is the second largest lodging market in the world,” said Watts. It has “1.4 billion people, a young population, historically strong GDP growth. But the infrastructure … is only just getting built in India now.”

India is investing heavily in infrastructure to build and improve its roads, high-speed trains and airports, in a building spree to double its economy to $7 trillion by 2030 and turn India into a developed nation by 2047.

Indian travelers spent $34 billion on outbound travel in 2023. That's "minuscule" compared to what's to come, said Alan Watts, Hilton's Asia-Pacific president.

12/11/2024

1.5 billion people are about to have a Copernicus Moment. Maybe even a series of Copernicus Moments.

Siri is about to go from "a joke" to a trusted partner (AI agent) for a good chunk of the world's smart phone users. She'll make it easy to interact with ChatGPT, which IMO, is going to blow this AI thing wide open.

This worldwide EPIPHANY will lead to massive innovation and productivity surges, as people begin to understand and harness the power of Generative AI.

The US stock market got it instantly. The vast majority of folks are going to "get it" soon.

Apple launches its ChatGPT integration with Siri

Apple released new versions of its iPhone, iPad, and Mac software on Wednesday that include the long-awaited ChatGPT integration with Siri.

12/08/2024

“I write because I don't know what I think until I've read what I said.” ― Flannery O'Connor

True statement.

The ATL phoenix is rising again and, this time, it's BIG!

12/08/2024

"Epiphany" has always been a favorite word of mine. For one thing, it's the name of the church that I attended as a young child. I attended kindergarten at Epiphany Catholic School. I received my First Holy Communion in the adjacent church. [That's me on the left sporting a crew cut on 4/27/63].

The second thing I love about the word "epiphany" is that it is synonomous with "Copernicus Moment," a term I coined many years ago when I learned about about the Polish astronomer. His heliocentric theory changed the trajectory of mankind by showing that the Sun was the center of the universe; not the Earth. As I asked in my Copernicus Moment podcast, can you imagine being a live at that time? The theory was considered to be so blasphemous, that the Church banned Copernicus' books for centuries after his death. [Goethe's quote below captures the importance of Copernicus' discovery beautifully]

In any event, this article about mathematics made me think of my old church in Miami and the podcast I published in 2023. Here's an excerpt...

What can someone gain by improving their mathematical thinking?

Joy, clarity, and self-confidence. Children do this all the time. That’s why they learn so fast. They have to. Otherwise, I mean, nothing makes sense. I think this is also why babies are super happy—because they have epiphanies all day long. It’s wonderful.

Mathematicians have to be radically honest about what they don’t understand and what they think. That might help them see, for example, that an object is defined the wrong way. Or that a different definition will make a theory simpler. Or that this is not the important notion, that one is.

There’s something about honesty, about being radically candid, about trying to find ways to articulate what you really feel—it’s super hard. It takes practice.

When you do math, you’re exposed to the human thought process in a way that is really pure. It’s not just about understanding things, but about understanding things in a very childish, deep, naive, super clear, obvious way. It’s very good training for creativity. It’s a scaffold for your imagination.

A "scaffold for your imagination." [breathtaking use of words, right there]

Article link: https://www.wired.com/story/everyone-is-capable-of-mathematical-thinking-yes-even-you/

12/06/2024

In addition to my Substack channel (ATLsherpa.com) you will find a ton of stuff at ExploreATLmaps.com. I created that website to serve as a dashboard, or sorts, for all my maps, websites and other tools I created to help people ExploreATL. I hope you will take advantage of these resources. Organize some tours based on my maps, share the links. Stay curious and keep exploring, my friends!

Dashboard: http://ExploreATLmaps.com

12/05/2024

AI is in the very early stages of disrupting everything. Every industry, every company. Every federal, state and local government. Every agency, every non-profit. Every man, woman and child. Many will get blindsided. Especially those who are married to their world views.

From this article..

“I’m a little bit reluctant to say it, but it’s like we’ve made decades worth of improvements in one year,” he said in an interview. “We’re seeing really, really rapid progress.”

He and his colleagues found that GenCast ran circles around DeepMind’s previous A.I. weather program, which debuted in late 2023 with reliable 10-day forecasts. Rémi Lam, the lead scientist on that project and one of a dozen co-authors on the new paper, described the company’s weather team as having made surprisingly fast progress.

GenCast, from the company’s DeepMind division, outperformed the world’s best predictions of deadly storms as well as everyday weather.

12/05/2024

https://x.com/TheBitcoinConf/status/1864498742511960489

12/02/2024

CALL TO ACTION: PLEASE TAKE THIS IN...

If you don't read anything else I ever post on this FB page, please read this one and watch the video linked below. This information will change your life. I am talking specifically about the latest version of ChatGPT, which is called ChatGPT 4o.

BACKSTORY

In May 2023, I published a podcast called "The World is Having a Copernicus Moment." In that piece (which is chock full of incredibly important information) I proposed a very provocative notion, which is that generative AI represents an inflection point for civilization.

As I shared in that podcast, that is what some of the smartest people on the planet were saying about these large language models. One of the reasons people were (are) so excited has to do with our *greatly* increased ability to have conversations with computers in a very natural way.

While that may sound scary and dehumanizing, you are going to find that having a conversation with ChatGPT, which is now possible with the new 4o version is an incredibly pleasing experience. It will also blow your mind. If you haven't had your Copercicus Moment about AI yet, I predict that this is going to do it for you.

NEXT STEPS
1. Watch the video below. This is the ChatGPT development team explaining what ChatGPT 4o is and what makes it unique.
2. I have linked a longer version of this interview in the comments below.
3. These are some of the smartest software engineers in the world. You won't understand everything they say (because of the accents) but you will get the gist of this. This ability (for the model) to REASON is an incredibly important breakthrough. So is the ability to have a VERY natural conversation with the chat bot. I cannot emphasize this enough!!!

HOW TO EXPERIENCE CHAT GPT 4o

1. Go to https://chatgpt.com
2. Create an account and sign up for the premium version ($20/month)
3. Go into VOICE MODE (see comments below for instructions)
4. Start some conversations. Ask ChatGPT anything. Start simple and then GO DEEP. Do not hold back. Ask it for advice. Ask it to solve problems. Any kind of problem. Keep the conversation going.
5. Be prepared to be BLOWN AWAY.

WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL ABOUT ChatGPT 4o?

Voice Conversations: You can now have real-time spoken conversations with ChatGPT, making interactions more natural and engaging.

Image Understanding: You can upload images for analysis, questions, or assistance, enhancing its capability beyond just text.

Enhanced Memory (Optional): ChatGPT can now retain details about your preferences and previous conversations to make interactions more personalized (if you enable it).

Improved Contextual Responses: It’s better at understanding and maintaining the flow of conversations, even over longer chats.

These updates aim to make ChatGPT more intuitive, conversational, and versatile in handling both spoken and visual inputs. Let me know if you'd like details on any feature!

https://youtu.be/3k89FMJhZ00?feature=shared

A conversational AI system that listens, learns, and challenges

12/01/2024

In addition to my insights about Atlanta and the market, one of the greatest gifts I can share with you is my love for and knowledge of classic rock. Here's a *deep* track from, what I considered be, the best Doobie Brother's album. It's long and winding composition with some exquisite guitar work. Put on your earphones and stick with this one👌 👌 👌 👍

Provided to YouTube by Warner RecordsClear as the Driven Snow · The Doobie BrothersThe Captain and Me℗ 1973 Warner Records Inc.Organ, Piano: Bill PayneUnknow...