01/28/2024
Taking a look at your observations, the data and our forecast we will not be making any changes to the forecast. For those of you in the cold sector, snow is already proving its ability to accumulate on surfaces and travel will continue to deteriorate. For those of you who spend the day on the boundary between rain and snow, you may notice precipitation tends to flip back and forth between rain and snow depending on intensity. Others along this line may stay snow but it may be such low ratio, wet snow that it simply liquifies on contact and doesn’t lead to any real accumulations. Models continue to hint at dry-slotting and precipitation becoming a bit scattered this afternoon at times, this will as mentioned above result in some areas of snow switching back to rain at times.
The changeovers we are seeing now are due to
The dynamic cooling process, which is heavily dependent on the intensity of the precipitation that is falling. So as precipitation lightens it may toggle back and forth between rain and snow and lead to a net zero accumulations throughout the day. As the main low pressure takes over and begins to deepen, the precipitation changeovers will be driven by colder air actually being pulling into the system. This will lead to more consistent and dependable changeovers which will also likely make their way further south and into lower elevations than the changeovers occurring this morning.
Model guidance does not do a great job calculating melting snow, non efficiently accumulating snowfall and accumulations lost to changeovers, or compaction of heavy wet snow. This is why the data can never be taken verbatim and why the final forecast was much lower than the data at the time. Fact is everyone is going to experience this Winter Storm differently depending on location. Best chances for accumulating snowfall throughout the day continues to be the higher elevations east and west of the river valley. With the lowest probabilities being valley locations and areas as you travel south. Keep an eye on your thermometers and see how they react to the intensity of the precip, many areas will be on a knife’s edge of watching white rain, cold rain or snow.
-Alex