Weather updates for The Bahamas
11am NHC track update on Ion. Another shift SE. This brings landfall time much earlier now. Major Hurricane still expected on approach. New track also extends more inland effects with Tropical Storm Warnings up along the east coast. www.spaghettimodels.com
Current NHC Watches/Warnings after the 5am update... showing coastal and inland counties. Graphic on weather.com. Ian now a Major Hurricane this AM. www.spaghettimodels.com
NHC 11pm track update on Hurricane Ian. Major Hurricane expected to remain when it reaches the Florida west coast! Big slowdown on approach. Little bump east in the track. No good news at all in this update. www.spaghettimodels.com
5pm NHC update on Hurricane Ian. Track bumped east. Hurricane Warnings are now up for west central Florida. www.spaghettimodels.com
STORM WATCH: TS Fiona is on track to become a hurricane later today with life-threatening flooding and mudslides expected across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. However, on its current track, the storm will produce tropical storm conditions when it passes east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas on Tuesday morning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the islands of the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The southeast Bahamas includes Inagua, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Samana Cay, Long Cay, and Ragged Island. At 5 am, TS Fiona was located 575 miles southeast of Inagua, moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
đź“ŤThe National Emergency Management Agency has scheduled a press conference this afternoon at 4 at its Gladstone Road Headquarters, to address the public on Tropical Storm Fiona.
it should be live on local tv Networks
Especially for those that live in the Far southeastern Bahamas 🇧🇸
...AGATHA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.....SUNDAY IS YOUR LAST DAY TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE...
* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect forSalina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan and for Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday.
At 10 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean about 190 miles (310 km) south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. It's moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm should move erratically overnight, followed by a northeastward turn later on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday, and further intensification is anticipated up until landfall on Monday.
Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected:
- Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
- Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
- Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
- Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
The nest complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 a.m. CDT - www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Here are the Key Messages from NHC regarding Tropical Storm Agatha, issued at 4 p.m. CDT Saturday. www.nhc.noaa.gov/ .
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued its outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It's predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Here's a link to the complete NOAA press release - https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season
An area of low pressure moved inland overnight Sunday along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is located on this Monday morning over south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move over land today, so tropical cyclone development is not expected. However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will continue to spread northeastward across portions of the southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office - www.weather.gov and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center - www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
There are no otherl disturbances over the Atlantic basin that have any potential for tropical cyclone development during the next five days. www.hurricanes.gov
The NHC has marked an Area of Interest in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weather in Nassau
The dust returns this weekend!
- Vibrant sunrises & sunsets
- Helps prevent tropical development
- Decreases air quality
The first tropical outlook has been issued! Hurricane season starts June 1!
Most areas in South Florida are expected to receive less than 1 inch over the next few days while the Bahamas is forecast to be in for several inches.
It’s already 59!
There are no weather disturbances on this Saturday over the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins that have any potential for tropical cyclone development during the next five days. www.hurricanes.gov
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port Arthur, Texas - www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday evening, we're watching three areas:
1) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (90 percent) chance during the next five days.
2) A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.
3) Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days, www.hurricanes.gov
Hurricane Hunters are inside Grace right now... and despite the impressive satellite earlier it isn't looking all that impressive underneath. New NHC update at 5pm with their findings and new cone. www.spaghettimodels.com
🌀 FIRST TRACK - Invest 95L now has a cone as the NHC expects it to become Grace as it approaches the Leewards this weekend. By next week, Seven could be a problem for the Bahamas & US, and I would pay close attention to this one.
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.....TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.
NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. At 5 p.m. AST, the disgrubance was centered over the Atlantic Ocean about 165 miles (260 km) east-southeast of Dominica and about205 miles (330 km) southeast of Guadeloupe. It's moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast to occur during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. When that occurs, it will be named "Fred".
The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 p.m. AST with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST - www.hurricanes.gov
On this Sunday night over the Atlantic basin, a low pressure system is located about 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (60 percent) chance during the next five days. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
Elsewhere, an elongated low pressure system is located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (40 percent) chance during the next five days. www.hurrricanes.gov
TWO AREAS TO WATCH 🍊🍊- The NHC is monitoring two tropical waves in the Tropical Atlantic. Both have a shot at becoming a depression as they approach the Antilles later this week, with the front runner reaching the Bahamas by next weekend.
If there was one wave to keep an eye on, it’s the wave out front, which the NHC along with computer model guidance signals will be in the Bahamas on Friday, where water temperatures will be warm and wind shear will be marginally favorable. The NHC currently gives this wave a moderate 40% of becoming a depression over the next five days, and those odds have slowly been creeping up. We’ll keep an eye on it at The Weather Authority!
Next names are Fred & Grace.
Three areas of disturbed weather continue to be watched by NHC on this Saturday night.
One is a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles southwest of the southwestern-most Cabo Verde Islands, Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are
expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds still are possible over portions of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday
The second is a small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development during the next several days, and this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (40 percent) chance during the next five days. The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest by mid-week.
The third is a surface trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of next week. It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days. www.hurricanes.gov
TROPICAL UPDATE 🌀: The large disturbance over the Tropical Atlantic bears watching as it moves west over the next week. Models are all over the place with what to make of this mess. All I know is it’s August & we have to pay attention as the Cabo Verde season cranks up. The next name is Fred.
I’m watching two tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin as we get closer to the peak of hurricane season.
The wave exiting Africa today now has a HIGH chance of developing over the next 5 days, and has been labeled INVEST-92L. However, it’s thousands of miles away from us, so nothing to worry about for now. Next name is Fred.
On this Thursday morning, there is a westward-moving tropical wave just inland over western Africa, producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off of the west African coast later today. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (60 percent) chance during the next five days.
Elsewhere, another tropical wave is located over the central tropical Atlantic and continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days. www.hurricanes.gov
TWO AREAS TO WATCH 🍋🍊🌀
The central Atlantic wave has a low chance of developing. A much stronger tropical wave over Africa has a better shot at becoming a depression as it moves into the Atlantic later this week.
Neither one of these waves pose a threat to us in the short-term since they’re thousands of miles away, but we’ll need to keep an eye as they move west over the next couple of weeks. It is August after all!
Next names on the list are FRED & GRACE.
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