18/11/2024
Fingers crossed!!!!
We're issuing a Storm Watch for Northeast ski areas starting Thursday the 21st and lasting approximately through Sunday the 24th with back end snow potentially lasting longer. Snowology Storm Watches are issued when we believe there is strong potential of 6" or more of snow across more than 5 Northeast ski areas.
There is blocking near Greenland which is expected to cause this storm to stall out and meander in the Northeast for days which could cause focused snow on some areas as well as some lake effect snow, though that doesn't currently look to be an exceptional event. The expected meandering makes the impacts impossible to even reasonably pinpoint at this range but it is likely that this will be primarily an elevation storm impacting mostly higher terrain with the heaviest snow expected in parts of NY, VT, and maybe W-MA.
The deterministic GFS model presently shows the potential of 3' of snow around Southern Vermont and the Berkshires, however we have our doubts about both focus and intensity so be wary of those sharing snowfall maps at this range as they will change. The ECMWF sees much lower accumulations currently. We however expect that many mountains from West Virginia through Maine are likely to receive 6" or more from this system, and there is potential for a prolific back end lasting many days in parts of the ADK's and Northern Greens.
We of course realize that few ski areas and very little terrain will be open, and it will take at least 15" of snow at 10:1 ratios to open natural trails for rock skis. That is possible with this system in some limited cases, but in the very least it should give a much needed boost to snowpack as ski areas work to try to open sufficient terrain for the Thanksgiving weekend. Cold air should follow behind this storm allowing snowmaking to come back online just before Thanksgiving. It's going to be tight for those looking to open for the holiday weekend no doubt.
We'll start tracking this storm Monday morning with daily Storm Updates so remember to follow Snowology to the pow!