17/06/2021
The uncertainty as to what the ground is going to be today, with only 2.4mm overnight, but rain for the last two hours leaves me cold about betting today. I am still trying to recover from the poor ride given to HAQEEQY by Jim Crowley after i had said he rides the track well. He chose to get stuck in traffic when he was well drawn and there was an enormous gap on the stands rail which ASTRO KING exploited. To be fair, he should have finished third or fourth, but, hopefully, ASTRO KING will go up a ton for his second and we wont see him in a big handicap again. The Cambridgeshire beckons for HAQEEQY.
2.30 CADAMOSTO sets the standard, however, on pedigree there must be a doubt that if the ground has soft in it, that it wont be ideal for him. GO BEARS GO and PROJECT DANTE are two first time winners that could win this with the former already showing that he can act on the course.
3.05 MOHAAFETH is the biggest talking horse in the country and if the ground softens, it will be interesting to see if Haggas is willing to risk him on it, after taking him out of the Derby because of the ground. This is not a betting race for me. ONE RULER does tick a number of boxes, but i am worried what effect running him in such an unsuitable race as the Derby last time, could have had on him.
3.40 NOON STAR is the obvious filly, the price is too tight for me. ESHAADA is the obvious alternative on the way she won the Listed race at Newbury. From that race, TWISTED REALITY is a filly to keep an eye on. She is better than her finishing position suggested and softer ground might suit her. AD INFINITUM was quite eyecatching in winning at Goodwood last time and is possibly overpriced at 20/1. She travelled through the race like a good filly.
4.15 This is one of the most interesting Gold Cups in recent years with a lot of more unexposed young horses running than normal. STRADAVARIUS, we all know about and he is a justifiable hot favourite looking as good as ever this year. NAYEF ROAD has a good record at this track, it is just difficult to see him winning and he has been disappointing this year. If the ground goes really soft, TRUESHAN is the obvious thinking person's bet. The problem is that he is plenty short enough and we do not know for sure if he will stay the 2m4f or not. SPANISH MISSION is very unexposed as an out and out stayer and would not be a shock winner. SERPENTINE, if he stays would justify the same words too. SUBJECTIVIST is quite classy and if he stays, he is a serious danger. If the ground gets really slow, you cannot rule out PRINCESS ZOE too, so the ew options are too numerous to evaluate with any confidence. The one that i might play for small stakes later is EMPEROR OF THE SUN, his form last time looks strong to me. One would have no clue if he will get the trip, though.
5.00 The ew terms of 1/4 the odds 4 places does not make this attractive enough to play in such a difficult race to work out. AERION POWER would be my number one choice and after yesterday the draw of 1 is not necessarily a disadvantage. There is pace in 2 7 and 9. AIR TO AIR gives an "air", excuse the pun, of a horse going places. MITHRAS looked destined for here after his win at Newbury. He will go on soft ground, the price has no real value before the race. PEROTTO is progressive.
SIAM FOX clocked a good time when winning last time. LIFFEY RIVER could be some value at a big price, if the rain gets into the ground.
5.35 Without knowing the ground, i have no comments on what is an impossible race anyway.
6.10 We will know by 6.10 how the rain that has finally arrived has affected the draw and the ground. JACKS POINT will supply the pace for the low numbers and would have an excellent chance of outrunning his 28/1 available today if the ground remains good to firm. The problem with him is that if soft features in the ground, he is certainly not as effective if the form in the book means anything. Come what may i think 8/1 about BOARDMAN is worth taking as he has been most impressive and seems to act on all ground. I have to admit i do have a concern that all his improved wins this year are on round tracks and stops me having a decent bet on him.
DANYAH is some ew value at 10/1 but does not do doing as something natural. He is bound to run well, my problem with him is that he just does not clock decent enough timefigures to win a race of this nature.
ALDAARY is the most unexposed horse in the field but his price reflects that. He is a likely winner of the race as i feel his last race at Epsom was a strong race on soft ground and he was given too much to do .PERSUASION is the horse that ratings companies all select as the top choice and he is progressive. DREAMLOPER did his form no favours yesterday and if the ground goes soft that wont help him. At a bigger price VOLATILE ANALYST is one to consider. I thought he won well last time, but he is just a few pounds behind the stronger prospects.