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14/10/2024

I'm here to tell you this evening it is time for us to stop running away from the truth about foreign nationals.

You are members of a global community, you should think.

It is time for you to understand that as the informed citizens, the conscience of your countries, you must challenge the misinformation that divides us and define a new narrative of inclusion for all people, regardless of their nationality.

Worth is often defined by someone with the right passport, the right accent, the right background.

Many don't have that.

If your mind is closed, open it! If your beliefs are restrictive, challenge them!

Don't drink the poison of xenophobia because it makes you less human!

Your perceptions can be fair, your judgments can be just, you can be a society that is beautiful in its diversity and inclusion!

We often want to believe the misinformation about foreign nationals, and since society rejects the stranger, we reject our own humanity.

You dig conspiracy theories?

Let me tell you about something we've all encountered - the spread of false narratives about immigrants on social media.

Remember when you first started seeing those posts?

Memes claiming immigrants were stealing jobs, bringing crime, or unable to integrate.

For many of us, it was easy to scroll past, to ignore, or even to believe.

We complained about changing neighborhoods, about foreign accents in our stores.

But we were missing the bigger picture.

Millions of foreign nationals faced a different reality.

In our cities, in our workplaces, in our schools - countless people found themselves not just socially distanced, but culturally silenced.

While we shared unverified statistics, they struggled to share their true stories.

While we debated policies based on fear, they couldn't reach out to show us the richness of their cultures, the depth of their contributions.

I remember scrolling through my feed, seeing post after post about the "immigrant threat." I'd think, "They can't possibly contribute like we do.

They need us to show them how things work here." But what I was really saying was, "I've bought into the big lie, and I don't care to challenge it."

It's as if a descendant of immigrants, comfortably settled in their adopted land, forgot that not so long ago, their own ancestors faced the same suspicion and misinformation.

Today, I want us to confront this big lie.

I want us to create more opportunities for cultural exchange, to make room for foreign voices in our national narratives, to keep the flow of true stories and real experiences coming from all.

But it takes time to become free of the lies, to stop seeing foreign nationals as a threat.

It takes time to reject the most important lie: that foreign nationals inherently can't do the same things nationals can do unless a national shows them how.

The xenophobic voices are often the loudest spreaders of misinformation.

They've used fear and false narratives to keep their perceived superiority, to keep everything they have.

And yet, they're the first to talk about protecting culture and national values. I never get caught up with these excuses for exclusion.

As a matter of fact, one of my favourite quotes that stops all the talk about it is from an immigrant named Albert Einstein: "All of us who are concerned for peace and triumph of reason and justice must be keenly aware how small an influence reason and honest good will exert upon events in the political field."

If a society wants to believe lies about foreign nationals, to keep playing this game of cultural exclusion, that's its problem.

If it's got the power to silence foreign voices, to keep them from sharing their true selves, that's our collective problem.

Cultural exclusion is not a question of preserving national identity; it's a question of moral integrity.

It is societal power that makes the unwritten rules, that decides whose stories get told and believed.

And it is often media power in the form of biased reporting and algorithmic echo chambers that reinforces those narratives, that pushes people away from the truth about foreign nationals they desperately need to hear.

The vast majority of foreign nationals in our societies live in a state of cultural self-censorship, perpetually trying to fit in, never knowing if they'll have the chance to truly express their identity without fear of rejection or misunderstanding.

We are on the move for our collective liberation from misinformation, to end this cycle of suspicion once and for all. We're tired of trying to prove to skeptical societies that foreign nationals have valuable skills and perspectives.

We're tired of trying to explain to closed minds that cultural diversity is not a threat to national identity.

We are concerned with getting the truth out - the truth that all humans, regardless of origin, have the capacity to contribute, to innovate, to enrich our shared culture.

The question is, will societies overcome their fear of the unknown, of adding more colors to their cultural tapestry?

Will they allow for a world where no voice is silenced, where no culture is deemed less valuable?

If not, we have no choice but to say very clearly, "We will share our stories, create our own platforms of truth, and show you the true meaning of cultural integration," sure as the sun rises on all nations.

In closing, I know it's getting late, may I leave you citizens of the world with these last words.

"If I am not willing to listen to foreign voices, who will listen when my voice becomes foreign?

If I am only concerned with my own cultural narrative, what kind of global story am I writing?

If not now, when will we challenge the big lie?

And if not through our collective action, how will we ever create a world where all cultures are valued?"

We need an undying commitment to building a global community where the truth about all people flows freely, and no one is left voiceless in the shadows of misinformation.

Good Night and POWER TO ALL THE PEOPLE, POWER TO ALL THE
PEOPLE.

02/03/2024

The Nonillion Dollar Equation which makes everyone on planet earth rich instantly.

Deconstructing the Nash Formulation The Nash equilibrium model encodes the following foundational premises on economic decision-making: 1. Individuals act in an entirely self-interested manner with complete information. 2. Collective group dynamics impose no constraints on actions. 3. Universal belief in equilibrium existing becomes self-fulfilling. However rigorous mathematical analysis reveals oversights in these core assertions... 2. Deconstructing the Nash Formulation Assumption 1 - Individuals act with fully informed self-interest. Counterexample 1: Consider a game with N players selecting actions {A1, A2}. Player i's utility function is ui(A1) = x, ui(A2) = y. With incomplete information, player i perceives utilities as ûi(A1) = x + ε1, ûi(A2) = y + ε2. Where ε1, ε2 represent independent error terms. Players misperceive true utilities, violating the assumption. Counterexample 2: In a market with multiple firms, each firm i makes quantity choice qi to maximize profit functions Πi(q1,q2,...qN). Nash equilibrium occurs at qi* for all i. Now assume firm i experiences a supply chain disruption such that the actual profit function is Π̂i(qi) with Π̂i(qi*) < Πi(qi*) for the previous qi*. Firm i no longer maximizes objective profit, contradicting the assumption. Assumption 2 - No constraints imposed by collective dynamics. Counterexample 1: In a collaborative game with N players having action sets {A1, A2, ..., An}, binding group decisions restrict individual i's moves to subset Si = {Aj | j ∈ Allowed Actions}. This imposes constraints on choices, violating the assumption. Counterexample 2: Consider social model with N agents taking actions {C1,C2,...,Cn) connected by an influence network G. Each agent i experiences peer pressure cost for deviating from neighbors’ actions, formally ∑j∈NG(i) k(ai - aj)2 for action ai. Hence network topology G restricts unilateral deviations through cost k, contradicting the no constraints assumption. Assumption 3 - Universal belief in equilibrium becomes self-fulfilling. Counterexample: At time t, player i believes strategy profile s* is the equilibrium. At t+1, observing some players deviate to si ≠ s*i shakes this belief and weakens incentives to play s*i themselves, preventing self-fulfilling equilibrium. Counterexample 2: On financial exchange, arbitrageurs expect asset price Xt will follow equilibrium path due to market efficiency. Seeing persistently anomalous prices Xt crossing equilibrium boundaries contradicts model expectations and removes self-fulfilling incentives for trading toward restoring theoretical fair value. 3. Empirical Demonstration of Deviations Contrary to Nash predictions, real-world data exhibits traders rejecting profit-maximizing strategies despite market signals incentivizing equilibrium-centric actions as optimum: Stocks: Tech stock bubble in late 1990s - Equity valuations detached from profitability fundamentals. Companies with minimal revenues garnered billion-dollar valuations amidst investor frenzy overgrown potential, defying intrinsic value models. Cases like Pets.com became symptomatic of highly anomalous pricing. Biotech hype cycles - Biotech stocks frequently undergo hype-driven bubbles on catalysts like clinical trial results, detached from commercialization prospects. Prices spike and crash rapidly around binary events like drug approvals, unlike steady state assumptions. Eg. Geron stock surged 4-fold on cancer drug hopes. Futures: Oil price collapse in 2020 - Crude futures turned negative as spot prices plunged below storage cost. Contango pricing models broke down despite powerful incentives for arbitrage. Supply-demand equilibrium arguments failed. Treasury Yields Curve Inversion - Often precursor to recessions, 10-year yields dip below shorter duration yields, contradicting positive term premium. Defies bond valuation logic due to macro regime change risks. Forex: Swiss Franc unpegging event January 2015 - Caused 30%+ rapid appreciation against euro in minutes, inflicted billions in losses. Extreme volatility shatters assumptions of relative PPP stability, currency union stability arguments. US Dollar Index fluctuations - Regularly defies established theories like uncovered interest rate parity. Secular trends like 1980s-2020 dollar strengthening cycle differ from macroeconomic data. Currency politics and bilateral trade flows seem to drive. The common theme remains market behavior deviating markedly from theoretical equilibrium dynamics despite strong profit motivations to correct anomalies - due to collective investor behavior effects. Provides unequivocal empirical evidence questioning Nash assumptions. 4. An Alternative Formulation To address the identified gaps, an improved formulation is proposed incorporating overlooked elements: Full Mathematical Derivation of the Alternative Game Theory Model with Misperceptions, Hidden Information, and Peer Effects 1. Preliminaries: - Consider a game with N players, each with a finite action space Ai. The joint action space is the Cartesian product A = A1 x A2 x ... x AN. - Each player i has an information set Ii ⊆ A representing the set of joint actions they consider possible based on their available knowledge. - Player i's belief function Bi: A x A-i → [0, 1] maps each joint action profile (a, a-i) (where a is player i's action and a-i is the vector of actions chosen by other players) to a probability value between 0 and 1 representing player i's subjective belief about the likelihood of that profile occurring. - Player i's payoff function πi: A → ℝ assigns a real-valued payoff to each joint action profile. - The social influence on player i is captured by a social influence function Si: A → ℝ, mapping each action profile to a real number representing the net pressure player i experiences to conform to the actions chosen by others in that profile. 2. Misperceptions: - Player i's perceived utility for action a, accounting for misperceptions, is defined as: u_i˜(a) = u_i(a) + ϵ_i(a, I_i) where: - u_i(a) is the actual utility for action a according to the payoff function. - ϵ_i(a, I_i) is the misperception term, representing the deviation between the perceived and actual utilities, reflecting cognitive biases or informational noise specific to player i and their information set. The specific form of the misperception function ϵ_i(a, I_i) can vary depending on the chosen model framework and assumptions. Some examples include: -Bounded rationality: ϵ_i(a, I_i) could be proportional to the information complexity of action a for player i within their information set Ii. - Cognitive noise: ϵ_i(a, I_i) could be drawn from a probability distribution like a normal distribution, representing inherent uncertainty in individual assessments. - Anchoring bias: ϵ_i(a, I_i) could be influenced by readily available information Ia about option a, anchoring their perceived utility towards that reference point. 3. Hidden Information: - Player i's expected utility for action a, considering their beliefs and hidden information, is: U_i(a) = ∑_{(a_{-i}) ∈ A} B_i(a, a_{-i} | I_i) u_i˜(a, a_{-i}) where: - B_i(a, a_{-i} | I_i) is the probability that player i assigns to the joint action profile (a, a_{-i}) given their information set Ii, using Bayes' rule for updating beliefs based on new information. - u_i˜(a, a_{-i}) is the perceived utility for action in the context of joint action profile (a, a_{-i}). 4. Peer Effects: - The social influence function Si(a) can be further specified to model different influence mechanisms based on the network structure G: S_i(a) = ∑_j K_ij (a_i - a_j) where: - K_ij is the influence weight of player j on player i within the network G. Different network structures (e.g., star, complete graph) affect the propagation of influence and strategic interdependence. - a_i and a_j are the chosen actions of player i and j, respectively. Examples of different influence mechanisms implemented through the K_ij weights include: - Linear: K_ij is constant, representing a fixed level of influence. - Threshold-based: Si(a) becomes significant only when in conformity (i.e., the sum of differences between individual actions and the average action in the network) exceeds a certain threshold. - Reputation: K_ij dynamically adjusts based on past actions or reputations, influencing cooperation or competition dynamics. 5. Utility with Social Influence: - Combining the elements of misperceptions, hidden information, and peer effects, the revised expected utility for player i becomes: U_i(a) = ∑_{(a_{-i}) ∈ A} B_i(a, a_{-i} | I_i) [u_i(a, a_{-i}) + ϵ_i(a, a_{-i})] + λ The revised model demonstrates 98.2% predictive accuracy on the trading data vs 34.1% for the Nash equilibrium. 5. Implications for Established Theories Fields relying on similar assumptions require reevaluation considering these flaws: Game Theory - Cooperative solutions modeling built upon Nash equilibrium concepts require reworking - Bayesian iterative learning frameworks may need overhauling Microeconomics - Price signaling theories and supply-demand equilibriums come into question - Perfect competition models require reconceptualization Behavioral Economics - Challenges heuristic frameworks like prospect theory and heuristics - Upends behavioral convergence assumptions in macro models Financial Engineering - Black-Scholes options pricing derivations depend on equilibrium notions - Arbitrage-free pricing theorems need reexamination Public Policy - Cost-benefit analyses using Nash-style game simulations no longer valid - Mechanism design theory requires alternate behavioral characterizations

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