16/05/2024
Middle East Energy Scenarios #2024 with Irina Duisimbekova &
Risk of Surging Oil Prices, Trillion-Dollar Economic Hit If Direct War Breaks Out
The - conflict is a powder keg. So far, despite the high human cost, the impact on the global economy has been limited. In a risk scenario, escalation into a regional war would roil trade flows for the oil and gas that are crucial to a vulnerable global economy struggling to tame inflation.
• $1 Trillion Cost of a Direct Israel- War: A direct war between Israel and Iran is an unlikely event but a dangerous one. It could propel oil prices to $150 a barrel, driving a $1 trillion drop in world GDP, increasing by 1.2 percentage points and triggering a global economic recession.
• Impact of Confined War or Cease-Fire Likely Muted: A sustained cease-fire in Gaza could translate into easing strain on Red Sea trade flows -- though the impact on oil prices, global growth and inflation would likely mean negligible changes from current levels in our prevailing confined-war scenario.
Gulf Oil Producers, Integrated Oil Companies at Risk From Escalation: Oil and gas producers including western energy majors in the Persian Gulf, such as Mobil, and , would be most at risk of direct attacks on production facilities and disruption to flows if the Strait of is compromised. oil and US shale producers are the key beneficiaries from a worsening conflict.
Meet the for more incentive on investments strategies and capital direction for the next 2 years: Stavros Therianos, Ph.D., MSc. Rim MATHLOUTHI Alexandre Katrangi
