Tradengain

14/02/2016

There is only one rival in the market and his name is Loss. And there is only one thing we say to Loss, Not today......
Crude- may touch 2900 before July.
Overview
In our last report we recommended our readers to have long positions in Crude-Oil as we were convinced to see a sharp pull back in the range of 10-15%. The Black-Gold rallied more than 9% (13% in NYMEX) and readers who followed us made huge profit.
Last Friday Crude oil made highest intraday gain in seven years, recovering from the lowest in more than a decade as global indices made smart rebound. Ongoing speculation of a production cut by OPEC also boosted the price. We expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production in the next couple of weeks which will bring another leg of flurry. In the next 3-6 months we expect appreciation between 50-100% (MCX - 2700-3600 & NYMEX - 40-52) in the Crude-Oil price and this bottom should be a long-term one. This upward journey may not be a smooth one and the oil price will see dips in between. If we see the price history of crude from the days of Six-Day war (1967) to the Credit-Crisis of 2008 we have every reason to be confident of a sharp reversal in the next few weeks.
Outlook
Right now there is only one outlook for the Crude-Oil traders and that is Bullish in nature. As long the oil is trading above 1840 the whole set-up will stay positive and Bulls should continue to hold their positions.
Weekly Strategy
1. Continue to be long above 1905 with stop-loss below 1840 (High risk traders put below 1795). Targets are high, yes they are quite high. Expect price objective of 2230 immediately. The longer term (3-6 months) price targets are 2342, 2556, 2790, 2908, 3145 and 3192.
Silver - May have some Consolidation
Overview
In our last weekly report we advised our clients to continue their long positions in Silver with a target of 37800. The White-Metal honoured our target and traders made smart money following our recommendations.
This week we are not very Bullish with the metal however we are not Bearish either. This week could be a consolidation week where Silver may touch its previous high and again come down to 36000. We expect the metal to have a range bound experience for the next 4-5 sessions. We expect to see at least 5-6% correction from last week’s high.
Unlike Gold Silver has an industrial use which makes it a necessary commodity. In the electronic industry Silver is an essential raw material. In 2016 electronics demand is showing signs of improvement, with the Global Manufacture of Electronic Equipment PMI reaching 51.4 in January. We expect the metal to continue its upward momentum however small dips may come here and there.
Outlook
The rounding saucer patterns which started in the month of October made a break out above 37800-37900. The price projection for this break out is at around 43000 however Silver is not going to touch this high in a hurry.
Weekly Strategy
1. Buy on dips near 36000-36500 zone for targets like 37800, 38700. Put your stop-loss below 35500.
2. Sell below 37750 for targets of 36955, 36472 and 36124. Put your stop-loss above 38375.
Gold- The enlightened trader is heedful and full of caution.
Overview
Last week Gold rallied more than 8%. Just like Silver Gold also successfully broke out above the October Rounding Saucer pattern. At this moment the chart is looking good and the up-trend should continue. However we expect to see some degree of profit booking in the counter which may take it to the levels of 1195. We are not advising our clients to have any bearish view however at this juncture we are little bit sceptic about the continuing Bullishness. In our opinion traders should book profit and wait for right price to re enter.
Outlook
As long the Yellow metal is trading above 1220-1230 zone traders don’t need to worry. However breach of this mark will invite first sign of nervousness which will push it to the levels of 1185. If the metal starts consistent trading below 1185 we may see correction in greater magnitude.
Weekly Strategy
At this point we will advise Gold traders to have a sit and watch approach.
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10/02/2016

The future is uncertain but the end is always near....

Southern journey is always bad, 7000 may touch

Technical
Nifty opened almost 1% gap down taking week cues from the global markets. Throughout the day the index made several attempts to recover some of the lost ground, however ended below 7300 mark loosing 1.21%. Yesterday the index broke two important supports (7360 and 7325) without much of an effort which shows the intensity of the weakness. At this point probability of a break down below 7240 is quite high and the index may do that even in opening trade. In our January report we predicted this turmoil to continue till March-April (and a bottom of 6900-7000) as the 13 month cycle should end there.
On the global arena Asian Tigers ended in substantial losses after US and European markets fell sharply overnight on concerns over softening global growth and speculation over the Federal Reserve raising rates further in March. NIKKEI crashed more than 5% after a selloff in the European banking stocks triggered demand for the
yen, pushing dollar through the 115 yen level to its lowest in the last 15 months. Yesterday Crude-oil crashed nearly 8% as forecasts of record high U.S. crude stockpiles strengthen expectations that global demand will not grow quickly and crude will not shine in near future.

Outlook
As long the index is trading below 7360 the whole setup will stay negative and every passing hour Nifty will try to break below 7240 mark. Trading above 7225 will provide some buying interest which could push it near 7260-7276 zone. Consistent trading below 7279 will break the last wall of 7240 and one may expect test of 7205 and 7176.

Today’s Strategy

1. Stay short below 7325 for targets of 7240, 7205 and 7176. Put your stop-loss above 7260

All eyes are at 14750

Technical After a brief shine banking stocks again started its south ward journey and the banking index closed below 14900. At this point possibility of a break down below 14750 is quite promising. If the index breaks below 14750 another round of Blood-Bath will start and the benchmark may see levels like 14575, 14350 and 14125. The European banking sector slumped to its lowest level in the last three and half years as markets worries a new banking crisis could erupt in a fragile global economy. Domestic banking stocks have already reacted to these events, however further negative development may cause fresh selling.

Outlook
As long the index is trading above 14750 the last wall for the Bulls will stay intact. Break of the crucial support will invite another 300-500 point’s fall near 14125-14375 zone. Consistent trading below 15050 will eventually break 14750 mark.

Today’s strategy

1. Stay short below 14950 for targets of 14750, 14575 and 14350. Put your stop-loss above 15065.


Today’s Pick

SCRIP BUY/SELL
INFY-1120 PE BUY - 25-27
STOP-LOSS 19
TARGET-1 45
TARGET-2 65

10/02/2016

The power of the financial market is in the uncertainty of the price.....

Is the party over for IT?

Overview
Yesterday Indian IT stocks crashed after the US-based Cognizant Technology Solutions provided depressing growth projection for FY-16. The U.S IT benchmark Index Nasdaq Composite plunged almost 3.5% as the future growth of the IT companies went into uncertainty. Right now the sentiment is quite depressing and the six year old Bull market in the IT companies is in ventilation. The index is down 18% from its all time high that was set in July last year. Technically the IT sector is very close to a Bear market and the confirmation will come below 4185 (20% decline from the top). If the U.S. sinks into recession, tech stocks could get hammered a lot more.

Technical
On Monday the Index crashed below the Neck-line of multi month old Head & Shoulder pattern at 4350. The long-term target for this pattern is at 3600-3700 zone. In the Indian market the Nifty IT index also declined nearly 4% after taking cues from global peers. All the front runner stocks declined significantly lead by INFY, TCS and HCL-TECH. On the weekly chart the index is showing substantial weakness and just crashed below 11 month old Descending Triangle at 10725(cash). Right now the index is trading below all key moving averages and the indicators are also signalling bearishness.

Outlook
In the short-term the IT sector may provide mild bounce after the ruthless fall which could take it to the levels of 10800-10900 (cash) level. However those bounces will work as a good shorting opportunity. The index will take good support near 10200 yet this support should not hold for long. Our projection for the index is 9500-9700 (cash) in the next couple of weeks.

Strategy
1. SELL NIFTY IT near 10700-10800 (cash) level with stop-loss above 10900(cash) for targets of 10425, 10205, 10015 (cash) in the next 2 weeks.

Technically below 10300 bear market will start in the IT index. (20% below 12908).

29/01/2016

http://www.indianotes.com/technical-newsletter/Equity/tradeNgain/N53bbe44e803cd/

28/01/2016

http://www.indianotes.com/technical-newsletter/Equity/tradeNgain/N53bbe44e803cd/

tradeNgain's daily equity newsletter provides market overview and expert recommendations on various stocks as well as technical analysis of indices like nifty, bank nifty, BSE index etc. Read on to get buy sell tips with target and stop loss. : contributor, technical, technical writers, authors, tec…

28/01/2016

Luck favors the prepared........Pasteur

Crude-Oil shining again, Fate of Nifty still in the hands of God.

Technical
For the last three days Nifty is testing the patience of the traders. When most of the trades are triggering stop-losses tradeNgain consistently provided profitable advices to its readers.
Right now Nifty is trading in a very narrow range and both bulls and bears are fighting for the ground. This fight will not continue for long and eventually one party will surrender. However the weight of the evidence is advocating in favour of the bears and the Bank-Nifty is providing some indication of prior sell off.

Outlook
No one should make long commitments until Nifty is closing above 7470 mark. At the same time until the Nifty is breaking below 7405 mark decisively, selling short could be dangerous. Traders should sit by the sideline and wait for legitimate movements. Our medium term assessment for the Nifty is mildly bearish.

Today’s Strategy

1. Sell below 7405 for targets of 7364, 7328, 7274 and 7240. Put your stop-loss above 7450.

(Positional traders may hold their shorts till 7240 or lower levels with stop-loss of 7480)

Providing early indications of bearishness

Technical
For the last two sessions Bank-Nifty is looking week and underperforming its peer. Yesterday it posted a poor Advance/Decline ratio of 0.25 and broke below the crucial support of 15450. In the pull back rally the index tried to break above the three months old downward slopping channel, however last moment selling pushed it below it. Right now the index is trading in negative zone and traders should sell short at every rise (till 15539 is not breaching).

Outlook
As long the index is trading below 15450 mark the trend will stay bearish. The crucial three levels for the index would be 15205, 15450, and 15539. Trading and closing below 15205 will again take the index to its previous lows.

Today’s strategy

1. Sell short below 15450 (Try to sell on rise) for targets of 15334 & 15205. Put your stop loss above 15539.


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26/01/2016

The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different. Always stick to your stop-loss. That’s the only way to survive in the financial markets.
May test 7500-7555
Technical
Yesterday Nifty tried to break the crucial 7470 level in the early morning however profit booking at higher levels pushed it below 7440 and it closed marginally in the green. Most of the indicators and oscillators are showing some strength and on the short term charts advocating in favour of longs. On the global front supply glut (mainly from Iraq) in the oil market pushed the crude oil below USD 30 mark however renewed buying brought back the flurry and drove it above 32. In the Asian front most of the markets closed in deep red due to increasing concerns about the international economy and falling commodity prices yet U.S. and Europe closed in deep green after a 9% rally in crude.
Outlook
On the short term charts Nifty is trading above crucial moving averages and touching 7500-7580 range is quite possible. For the day 7389 is the make or break number for long positions. Below this level Nifty will again start its down ward journey.
We expect the market to retest the levels of 7250-7300 (or lower levels) before start of a new uptrend (unless it is closing above 7680 mark)
Today’s Strategy
1. Stay long above 7415 for targets of 7470, 7500, 7525, 7555. Put your stop at 7389.
2. Sell short below 7395-7385 zone for targets of 7344, 7328, 7274. Put your stop above 7425.
Trading at no man’s land
Technical
Just like its peer the Bank-Nifty also closed in green. However the internal strength was not that promising as 9 of the constituent stocks (75%) declined. The index is trading in a zone where traders should wait for further development. One should only participate in break-out or break-downs only.
Outlook
As long the index is trading above 15539 one can stay long. However trading below 15450 will again attract fresh short selling and the banking index may again start its southward journey. The two key levels for the day would be 15539 and 15450.
Today’s strategy
1. Stay long above 15539 for targets of 15685 and 15840 with a stop-loss of 15474.

26/01/2016

13/01/2016

The market we trade in is vastly different from the market we think we trade in...


Temporary halt or a new start

Technical Nifty made a strong pull back from 7426 and closed above the crucial level of 7550. Yesterday we were the first to provide buy calls on Nifty when the majority was on the sell side. The benchmark index witnessed huge volatility with intraday high-low range of 2.18%. On the daily chart Nifty made a Bullish-Harami candlestick pattern at the same time a variation of Doji was also formed. The index managed to close above the crucial 600 day exponential moving average at 7544 and pushed its A/D ratio above 1. The remaining two days of the week may see some amount of consolidation and reduction of volatility. On the global front the commodities are still looking pretty week and every attempt of rally is inviting further distribution. According to Standard & Poor's (S&P) the pressure on global corporate credit ratings is at the worst level since the financial crisis and this could coincide with significant downgrades in Indian companies.
Outlook For the day Nifty may slide to the levels of 7500-7520 where support should come. Below 7470 another leg of selling will come which will take it to the levels of 7420-7384. On the upside if the index consistently trades above 7604-7610 level only then a sustainable up move is possible. Under this tremendous volatile time traders should act only in the extreme levels.


Today’s Strategy

Buy in the range of 7475-7515 with a stop-loss of 7460 and target of 7550-7590.

Sell short near 7605-7630 with a stop-loss of 7650 and target of 7550-7580.

In spite of small pullback, strength yet to come

Technical Bank-Nifty bounced back from our given level of 15539 and closed above the crucial mark of 15840. Just like its peer Nifty the banking index also made positive candle stick patterns on the chart and closed above crucial moving averages. After many sessions bank-nifty posted an A/D ratio above 1 though many constituent counters are still making multi month lows.
Outlook If the index consistently trades above 15840 buying will come and take it to the levels of 16125-16150. 16225-16250 range will be the first test of strength. On the the downside consistent trade below 15840 will take it to yesterdays bottom and levels much lower.

Today’s Strategy

Buy near 15530-15585 with a stop-loss of 15400 and a target of 15800


Note Due to excessive volatility the buying range and stop-losses are wider than normal days.


***** All the international markets and leading commodities are also going downward and trading near extreme oversold zones. So traders are also advised to keep eyes open towards these outside forces. Any big change in the overseas markets, commodities and currencies will also have cascading effect on the domestic financial instruments.

Today’s Picks

SCRIP BUY/SELL
CANBANK BUY
194-198
STOP-LOSS 184
TARGET-1 210
TARGET-2 225

SCRIP BUY/SELL
TTKPRESTIG BUY
4250-4300
STOP-LOSS 4190
TARGET-1 4425
TARGET-2 4550

CANARA BANK is a positional call with time horizon of 7-15 days


Analyst
Aziz Rahman
Contact –
9830146212
[email protected]


Feel free to call regarding any doubt or suggestions. You may also call for product related enquiry and free trial.

Trading Mantra
1. Never put more than 20% of your money in a single trade.
2. Always respect the Stop-loss, that’s the only way to survive over long run.
3. Never let a profit turn into a loss; always keep booking profits and raise your stop-
loss accordingly.
4. Booking profits is very important and booking loss at the right time is even more
important.
5. Over trading kills, never do over trading.
6. Practice day trading in a paper-trading account.
7. Trade with a calm mind; maintain a sound balance between personal life and life in
the share market; don't let the two aspects interfere.




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All the calls made in this section are based on our judgments and the information available on particular point of time. Adequate precautions has been taken to draw the calls, however directors, employees or the technicians of the site will not be responsible for the losses or gains made through the calls, either legally or otherwise. Subscribers are advised to exercise the calls at their own risk. We shall also not responsible for failure of connectivity of internet for any reasons, whatsoever either for failure of the server or otherwise. It is advisable for the viewers to act cautiously and to cross check information from other sources before taking any investment decisions and without assigning any liability to us. Stock/Commodity Market trading involves risk and this website does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use or the results of the materials posted on this website or other sources in terms of their correctness, accuracy, reliability, profit, or otherwise. This website does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information.
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