25/10/2024
“KRISTINE” IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 26
Severe Tropical Storm (TRAMI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 25 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 255 km West Northwest of Bacnotan, La Union or 255 km West Southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (17.4°N, 118.1°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
LUZON:
The northwestern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Abulug, Pamplona), the Babuyan Islands, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, and the northern portion of Bataan (Morong, Hermosa, Dinalupihan, Bagac, Orani, Samal, Abucay, City of Balanga)
TCWS No.1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, the rest of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Bulacan, the rest of Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, San Vicente, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Burias Island
VISAYAS:
The northern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay), and the northern portion of Antique (Libertad, Pandan) including Caluya Islands
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 27 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
• Tomorrow (26 October): Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
• Sunday (27 October): Palawan, Romblon, Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 13 issued at 8:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 12A issued at 11:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 6.0 m: The western seaboards of Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan.
o Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Pangasinan; the seaboard of Batanes, Babuyan Island, and La Union.
o Up to 5.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the seaboard of Lubang Islands; the western seaboards of Bataan and Batangas.
o Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Occidental Mindoro; the northern and western seaboards of Calamian Islands.
o Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 4.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley; the western seaboard of mainland Palawan; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands.
o Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Cuyo Islands, Calamian Islands, Antique, and northern Aurora; the southern seaboard of Iloilo; the western and southern seaboards of Guimaras; the western and southern seaboard of Negros Occidental.
o Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Aurora and Batangas; the seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; the southern seaboard of mainland Quezon.
o Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga del Norte, and Siquijor, the southern seaboard of Bohol, the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental, the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
o Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region this afternoon or evening.
• In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein KRISTINE will continue moving westward over the West Philippine Sea until tomorrow, loop counterclockwise on Sunday and Monday, then move eastward for the remainder of the forecast period. However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the tropical cyclone east of the PAR region and the behavior of other synoptic weather systems surrounding KRISTINE while over the West Philippine Sea.
• KRISTINE is forecast to gradually intensify over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out. However, a weakening trend is expected by early next week due to a possible surge of northeasterly wind flow over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: http://tinyurl.com/kristineph
