15/11/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Typhoon (MAN-YI)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today.
TYPHOON “PEPITO” THREATENS SOUTHERN LUZON AND EASTERN VISAYAS AS IT NEARS SUPER TYPHOON CATEGORY.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data including from Guiuan Weather Surveillance Radar at 220 km East Northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 305 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.2°N, 127.4°E).
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 215 km/h, and central pressure of 940 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward at 25 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 440 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
Wind threat:Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Tiwi, Malinao), the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, San Jose, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Sagñay, Tigaon, Goa), and the easternmost portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz)
Visayas:
The eastern portion of Northern Samar (Palapag, Laoang, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig, Catubig, Pambujan) and the northernmost portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Jipapad)
TCWS No.2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Camarines Norte, the easternmost portion of mainland Quezon (Tagkawayan), and Pollilo Islands
Visayas:
The northern portion of Eastern Samar (Dolores, Maslog, Can-Avid, Taft, Sulat, San Julian, City of Borongan), the northern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Tarangnan, Motiong, Gandara, Jiabong, City of Catbalogan, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Pagsanghan), and the rest of Northern Samar
TCWS No.1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Masbate including Burias Island, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela, the central and southern portions of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Iguig, Tuao, Rizal, Santo Niño, Lasam, Gattaran, Baggao, Amulung, Alcala, Piat, Lal-Lo, Allacapan), Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Abra, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao, Pudtol, Flora), Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, and Benguet
Visayas:
The rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the northern and central portions of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo, Abuyog, Javier, City of Baybay, Mahaplag), the northeastern portion of Southern Leyte (Silago), the northernmost portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, and the northernmost portion of Iloilo (Carles)
Mindanao:
The northern portion of Dinagat Islands (Loreto, Tubajon)
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and the eastern seabooad of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 10 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 14.0 m: The seaboard of Catanduanes.
• Up to 12.0 m: The northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
• Up to 9.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the seaboard of Camarines Norte.
• Up to 7.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.
• Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur.
• Up to 4.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboards of Aurora; the remaining seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar; the seaboards of Burias and Ticao Islands.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Dinagat Islands and northern Quezon.
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Quezon, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas
• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboard of Surigao del Sur; the seaboards of Marinduque, Romblon, and northern Cebu
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Davao Oriental
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, Davao del Sur, and Ilocos Region.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next three days before turning generally westward to west southwestward from Monday (18 November) evening to Thursday (20 November) early morning. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora tomorrow afternoon or evening remains not ruled out. PEPITO is expected to exit the PAR region on Monday.
• Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and the provinces of Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening or Monday morning.
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PEPITO will continue to intensify today and may reach super typhoon category within the next hours prior to its landfall tonight or tomorrow early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur tomorrow as PEPITO passes over the landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and will likely be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Links:
➣ TC Bulletin for Pepito: tinyurl.com/tc-pepito
➣ Weather Advisory: tinyurl.com/wx-adv
➣ Gale Warning: tinyurl.com/wx-gale
➣ Storm Surge: tinyurl.com/wx-surge
➣ TC Warning Agriculture: tinyurl.com/tc-warning-agri
