31/07/2021
From Doc Edsel Salvana.
Delta keeps surprising us and is forcing nations to recalibrate their responses.
1. The most recent CDC data has overturned one of the side benefits of vaccination. Initial data from Israel PRIOR TO DELTA showed that people with breakthrough infection had much lower viral loads than unvaccinated people and were therefore less contagious. With Delta having 1,000 times higher viral load than non-Delta viruses, this seems to be no longer the case. That's why the US asked vaccinated people to put their masks back on. Not because they think its necessary for the vaccinated, but so the vaccinated don't infect the unvaccinated who are more likely to die.
2. Vaccinated people with breakthrough Delta infection can infect people around them, even though vaccinated people are much less likely to die. Delta is also more deadly compared to non-Delta, so its a really good idea to get vaccinated. If everyone is vaccinated, the risk of death becomes lower. Until then, even vaccinated people should keep their masks on to protect those around them.
3. Israel has started giving a 3rd dose of Pfizer to older people. This is only because they have already vaccinated 90% of them and would like added protection in case some of the elderly with weakened immune systems did not get enough protection from the 1st two doses. This is a specific country decision, understanding there is no good prospective evidence to support this, and also that they have enough vaccines for their entire population. The Israeli medical experts made it clear that they are not advocating routine boosters for everyone, and they understand that theirs is a unique situation and is not applicable to countries with limited vaccine supplies.
4. The reason there are breakthrough deaths even among vaccinated people especially in the vulnerable population is that vaccines decrease risk of death by 90% or more, but if your baseline risk is high, your lowered risk is still not zero. For instance, an 80-year old person has a 15% risk of dying from COViD-19. If he/she gets vaccinated, it goes down to about 1.5% (90% decrease). So if 100 unvaccinated 80 year olds were to get COVID, 15 of them would die. If 100 vaccinated 80 year olds got COVID, only 1 to 2 of them would die.
Hope this helps cut through the noise. The most protected when we get vaccinated is OURSELVES. We need to keep using masks and other public health interventions to protect OTHERS. When everyone is vaccinated, deaths will go down drastically and maybe then we can start relaxing these measures. Stay safe!