28/10/2022
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11 🌀 | Issued at 5:00 PM, 28 October 2022. Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today
“PAENG” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN SAMAR-SORSOGON-ALBAY AREA
Location of Center (4:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Guiuan Doppler Weather Radar at 180 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.4°N, 126.3°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Islands, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan), the southeastern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, General Tinio, City of Gapan, Cabiao, San Isidro, Pe), Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, the eastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, San Luis, San Simon, Apalit), the northern and central portions of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas), and Romblon
Visayas:
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Calubian, Tabango, Leyte, Capoocan, Carigara, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Palo, Tanauan, Dagami, Pastrana, Jaro, Kananga, Villaba, Tunga, Tabontabon, Tolosa)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the central and southern portions of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, City of Santiago, Cordon, Echague, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Angadanan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, San Mateo, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Palanan, Aurora, Burgos, San Manuel, Gamu, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Roxas, Quirino, Mallig), Ifugao, Benguet, Mountain Province, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Cervantes, Alilem, Suyo, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Quirino, Gregorio del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia), La Union, Bataan, Tarlac, Zambales, Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Pampanga, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, and the rest of Nueva Ecija
Visayas:
Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Siquijor, and the rest of Leyte
Mindanao:
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Carrascal, Cantilan, Madrid, Carmen, Lanuza, Cortes, City of Tandag, Bayabas, Cagwait, San Miguel, Tago, Marihatag), Agusan del Norte, the northeastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat), Camiguin, and the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Balingoan, Kinoguitan)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• This afternoon through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of Mindanao.
• Tomorrow early morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to torrential rains likely over Aurora, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, CALABARZON, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, and the rest of Central Luzon and Bicol Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Aurora, the northern and eastern portions of Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #2 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make landfall or pass close to Northern Samar tonight. Afterwards, this tropical cyclone will traverse the Bicol Region this late evening through tomorrow morning. Between tomorrow afternoon and evening, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon (including Polillo Islands). Considering the southward shift in the forecast track, the landfall scenario may change in the succeeding bulletins.
• PAENG is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category within 12 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
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Source of Bulletin/Advisory: tinyurl.com/PaengPHPAGASABulletin
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