29/10/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 14
Typhoon (KONG-REY)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 30 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TYPHOON โLEONโ FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon LEON was estimated based on all available data at 395 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (18.9ยฐN, 125.2ยฐE)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 205 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon
The rest of Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, the northern and eastern portions of Isabela (Santo Tomas, Santa Maria, Quezon, San Mariano, Naguilian, Dinapigue, Delfin Albano, San Pablo, Ilagan City, Benito Soliven, Tumauini, Cabagan, Palanan, Quirino, Divilacan, Gamu, Mallig, Maconacon, Burgos, City of Cauayan, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Roxas, Aurora, San Manuel), Apayao, Kalinga, the northern and eastern portions of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), and Ilocos Norte
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
The rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, the northeastern portion of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Paniqui, Moncada, Anao, San Manuel, Pura, Ramos, Victoria, Gerona, Santa Ignacia, City of Tarlac, La Paz), the northern portion of Bulacan (Doรฑa Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel), the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan), and the northern and eastern portions of Catanduanes (Pandan, Gigmoto, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Baras, Caramoran)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 8 issued at 5:00 AM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with LEON.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
โข Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
โข Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
โข Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of LEON is Wind Signal No. 4, especially in Batanes and Babuyan Islands. The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 5 is also not ruled out.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of LEON will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following localities (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) outside Wind Signal areas:
โข Today (30 October): Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and Dinagat Islands.
โข Tomorrow (31 October): Aurora, Batangas, Quezon, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region.
โข Friday (1 November): Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora.
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2.0 to 3.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas:
โข Up to 12.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes
โข Up to 10.0 m: The seaboards of Babuyan Islands and northeastern mainland Cagayan
โข Up to 8.0 m: The remaining eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
โข Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela; the remaining northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
โข Up to 6.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
โข Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora
โข Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas:
โข Up to 4.0 m: The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the remaining seaboard of Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands, the seaboard of Camarines Norte; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
โข Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
โข Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region.
โข Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas:
โข Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, and Kalayaan Islands; the western seaboard of northern Palawarn; the eastern seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur
โข Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas
โข Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
โข LEON is forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan tomorrow (31 October) afternoon. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, LEON will then turn north northwestward to northeastward over the Taiwan Strait towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow evening or Friday early morning (1 November). A second landfall over mainland China is not ruled out during this period.
โข LEON will be closest to Batanes from tomorrow early morning to noon time. A landfall in Batanes is also not ruled out.
โข This tropical cyclone is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea until prior to landfall over Taiwan. LEON will likely be at or near super typhoon intensity during its closest point of approach to Batanes.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
