07/04/2021
Last November I had the “opportunity” to experience my first hurricane when I visited The Beach Beckons to do a bit of maintenance. Fortunately, I found this voice of treason amongst the many voices shouting doom and gloom in an attempt to attract viewers. Denis is so helpful!
Overnight Elsa Update:
1. Sleep? It's overrated. Here are a few thoughts on Elsa.
2. The storm continues to weaken even though it had a "blow up" of convection. The pressure continues to rise, now at 1007 MB. Water is pretty warm out there though, so we'll see how she fares before making landfall on Sunday in Cuba.
3. New models out. The Euro completely obliterates Elsa after Cuba while the GFS weakens it considerably, but the GFS predicts a small flare-up as it moves up the West coast of Florida.
4. I would expect the NHC to continue to predict the weakening of Elsa over the next 24 hours. If it DOES redevelop, it seems with significant shear in the Gulf, there won't be much.
5. Heavy rains are still likely with some coastal flooding possible along the immediate path of the storm. However, I gotta tell you, if the models are even close to accurate, there won't be much of Elsa left once it emerges past Cuba.
6. Timing is still Monday for SW Florida and Tuesday for Central Florida, including the Bay Area.
7. Rule #7. Nothing to freak out about here. We try to avoid getting too high or too low when tracking tropical systems. Hype is common these days, but you won't find it here. Our goal is always to give you the facts as we see them, with a bit of hope mixed in. In weather, things are rarely clear-cut. And in my opinion, focusing on worst-case scenarios is not only inaccurate, it's also irresponsible. Quite often, things DO work out. Nothing wrong with being the glass is half full kinda guy. Have a great 4th!
