10/28/2020
By Avi Meir, TravelPerk Co-founder & CEO
The Coronavirus pandemic has changed all of our worlds, and not just in the short-term. Outside of healthcareโwhere heroes dressed in gowns are battling on the front linesโfew industries have been hit like travel. In my own company bookings are down by over 95%, weโve created a COVID-19 resource center and our support staff are working very hard to help travelers and admins. However, the scale of the problem cannot be ignored; entire nations have been ordered to stay at home, airlines have gone bankrupt, travel companies are laying off massive amounts of workers, and hotels are now hospitals. When things do start to return to โnormalโ, travel, especially international travel, will look very different. Here are the top changes I see coming.
When will travel recover?
The million-dollar question. The short answer is nobody knows for sure. Travel will recover in stages and freedom to travel will vary, not only country-by-county but by region. In addition, there are multiple factors that will influence travel such as whether social distancing on planes is economically viable for carriers, the reliability of antibody tests, and if immunity is lasting, to name but a few.
Here is what we believe:
Domestic travel will begin to recover around October
International travel will take around 18 months to recover
1. The queue at immigration will be longer than ever before
Weโre already seeing with China, Singapore, and South Korea, countries that feel like they are on top of their outbreaks, that the biggest worry now is new infections coming from outside. Korea is ordering all persons entering from US and Europe to isolate for two weeks, even if they test negative for COVID-19. Those without a permanent residence are being sent directly to an isolation ward. Manufacturers of heat cameras are seeing a spike in demand. Even when lockdowns in Europe are over and we start to travel again, countries will test at the border. If you thought the line at JFK immigration control was torturous before, now consider what itโll be like as you line up, take a swab test, and wait for the results.
2. Youโll need more than a passport
Some countries will not even take the chance of testing at the border. Especially if youโre coming from an outbreak hotspot. Entrance will be refused unless you have a certificate of immunity due to the fact that youโve recovered from an infection or because youโve been vaccinated (once thereโs vaccines available). Wristbands with barcodes like those in the movie Contagion are a very real prospect.
Certainly in the short-term, travel will become more defined by purpose. Any business travel will need to be strictly validated as an economic activity, with companies tightening the numbers of employees who travel for them. Countries will likely only open their borders where there is merit and itโs safe to let travelers through. This may mean temporary visas and more documentation that youโll need to take with you when traveling.
3. Travel will have different (expensive) seasons
A very influential paper from Imperial College London speculates that governments will need to turn lockdown measures on and off in order to keep demands on healthcare systems at a manageable level. This means there will be windows of opportunity to travel that last only weeks or even days. Even with airlines desperate to get airborne again, seats will be limited and we could see dramatic increases in pricing during those windows.
4. Recovery will be uneven
Weโre seeing already that the factors influencing this pandemic are numerous. Strictness and timing of lockdown measures, robustness of healthcare systems, the weather, luck, and other factors are all at work. Meaning some countries and regions will recover first. We will see corridors of recovery open back up one by one.
How this will look exactly is difficult to predict. For example, Italy is days ahead of other European countries when it comes to the extent of its outbreak. Might this mean itโs amongst the first to reopen its doors, like China? Or will the depth of the nightmare Italy is dealing with mean that they are more reluctant to let foreigners in?
5. Youโll pack differently
Seen the TikTok video of a man taking out a bag of wet-wipes and thoroughly wiping down his table and seat before sitting down for take off? Well, it could be something you start to see in the flesh. Even if itโs not to that comedic extent, weโre being directed to wash our hands, and the only way to do that when on the move is with hand sanitizer. We may well see the relaxing of liquid carry-on restrictions as travelers want to take more than 100ml, especially on long-haul flights.
Along with hand sanitizer travel packs, itโs a pretty easy prediction to make that a lot more people will travel with masks. In the same way that companies like Away have made luxury, fashionable travel baggage, we will most likely see โdesirableโ travel masks worn by Instagram influencers.
6. Youโll tick that little box every time
Weโre all very used to airplane bookings coming with tens of add-ons once weโve chosen our flight. Letโs be honest, most of us skip past speedy boarding, extra baggage, car-rental, and even seat selection. One box that we wonโt be skipping past as much is the one asking us if we want to insure the flight. Be careful though, often this โinsuranceโ doesnโt cover you for many things, including the outbreak of a pandemic. Either airline providers or insurance companies are going to have to change to accomodate our new reality.
At TravelPerk, we saw the need for flexibility even before the current crisis. Itโs why we created something different and better than insurance called FlexiPerk, allowing you to cancel a trip for any reason, up to a couple of hours before take-off. Weโve seen massive demand for FlexiPerk since we launched it, and this demand has increased dramatically since the beginning of the Corona outbreak.
7. Society wonโt like you when youโre sick
Even those who have recovered from COVID-19, and have built up immunity (if the virus doesnโt mutate too much) wonโt want to travel with a cold. The current situation and the conviction with which the world is adopting social distancing will make it socially unacceptable to travel with a cold or any symptoms. The looks you will get if you cough or sneeze at an airport or on a plane will be scathing. I predict that social stigma will put a lot of people off, resulting in the potential for more no-shows on travel days (once prices are stable).
8. Youโll take the train before the plane
Domestic travel will recover first (thereโs no border control) and for most countries that means taking a train. Not only will we be able to get back on tracks (ha, a pun) first, weโll also be more secure about it. Trains are less crowded, have windows that open, and also are much more environmentally friendly. Once the lockdowns we see in Europe now are lifted, I predict people will rush to take a train, just because they can.
9. Air quality will be an advertised feature
Any idea what grade air filter Lufthansa uses on their flights? How about British Airways? Korean Air? Which Airbus model has the cleanest air? Do Boeing planes have fewer microbes in the air? No idea? Well, you may not know now, but once weโre flying again, airlines will start boasting about their filtration systems. Some have already started emailing customers about their current systems in a bid to stop people canceling. By the end of the year, itโll be a question many people will be askingโhow safe is the air onboard?
