03/10/2025
Iditarod Update March 10 at 1am Alaska time.
Yes, 1am. Because I have a life, dogs and a toddler. Here is my analysis of the current Top 11 teams.
Things are heating up! Now is the time in the race that things either start coming together for teamsā¦or they start to fall apart. Strong team management early on and good run/rest schedules are going to pay off for those who were patient during the first half of the race.
This is a race where patience prevails!
Jessie Holmes
Jessie has a nice lead. If things go right for him, he can likely maintain it. However, with 400+ miles left ahead of him ā things can still go wrong. Is it a shoe in? No. Is he likely to prevail? Heās in the best positionā¦but Jeff King, Nic Petit, ā have both had commanding leads far closer to the finish only to have things go drastically awry. This is dog racing. Nothing is certain. Still, heās sitting pretty and is in the best position. His team is moving well and supposedly eating well too ā great signs for continued dominance.
Paige Drobny
Currently in second, Paige is in a delicate position. She needs to be near enough to potentially capitalize on an error from Holmes but also has to fend off teams behind her that have (at times) had better speed. Sheās going to have some tough choices ahead as she nears the coast: cut rest to catch Holmes and risk losing speed or hold steady and hope he falters? How she navigates her rest/run schedule the next 200 miles of trail will say a lot about what she thinks she has better shot at: catching Holmes or maintaining position.
Matt Hall
Matt Hall seems to thrive on bad trail and little rest. Like the energizer bunny, he just keeps going and going. He happily dropped 4 dogs in Eagle Island 1. His explanation? They were younger team members he didnāt want to push. Mattās a savvy dog driver and incredibly scrappy. He is going to give Paige a run for her money if he can hold the 11 dogs in his team together. And Holmes? He better watch out because if he falters, Matt is going to continue to push. All that aside, Matt has been running the race on less rest than the teams around him. Can he cut more to get ahead? Will the rest he already cut catch up with him? ā¦ I could see this one going either direction but history has shown that Matt knows exactly what his dog team is capable of.
Michelle Philips
Although Iāve really liked the look of her team, Michelle has come across as very cautious in her most recent interviews. Michelle has twenty-two 1,000 mile races under her belt. She knows how to manage a team and appears to be taking it cautious. Sheās also switched to doing 5 hour rests. The question: is she doing these longer rests now to put some rest āin the bankā and to cut rest once she reaches the coast or is she taking longer rests because she is working to maintain her team? With 12 dogs in her team, her interviews, and her rest and run times ā all signs point to her trying to maintain her position instead of improving.
Bailey Vitello
Bailey is, by all accounts, doing a great job at trying to be competitive on his 3rd Iditarod start. The teams around him are consistently traveling similar speeds or slightly faster ā but you have to give credit where itās due and for his 3rd Iditarod, on a challenging race, heās done well. He will likely finish in the top 10 or just outside it.
Nic Petit
Where the heck did Nic come from? His team seems to be coming together. His cautious start at the beginning of the race has paid off. Nic is such a wild card which makes him almost impossible to predict. What we know: he has 11 dogs and continues to have steady
/fast run times. Nicās run a smart race so far. It would be great to see this annual contender back in the top 10.
Ryan Redington
Ryan has run a beautiful race. I thought for sure heād start making a push to the front ā but now heās down to 9 dogs and still has to complete the loop before he hits the coast. With the right 9 dogs anything is possible but the second half of the race is going to require careful team management. I could see this going any number of ways for Ryan. Noticeably absent from recent interviews is his chipper demeanor. He could just be tired (because, duh itās day 6 of the Iditarod) or he could be feeling a bit concerned about the current state of his team. Regardless, Ryanās a great dog driver and knows exactly what he can get from his team. His rest times moving forward will be telling: if he rests the same as his competition or less, heās still competing. If he starts resting more than the teams around him, heās just trying to make the finish line.
Mitch Seavey
Did you see that team eat in Eagle Island on the live feed? Wow. Those dogs were going absolutely insane. They barked, danced, and scarfed down not one bowl, but two bowls of soup and snacks. The team is certainly well fueled. Mitch knows how to manage a dog team and it seems like theyāve hit a new gear. He did short runs off the starting line with good rests.
He could conceivably cut rest from here on out and start chipping away at the lead of the teamās over him. The wildcard in this case doesnāt seem to be the dog team as much as Mitch himself. He readily admitted he is trying to get more sleep.ā¦ but sleeping on the Iditarod is kind of an oxymoron.
Mille Porsild
Mille has several decades of experience traveling by dog team to remote polar regions around the world. Sheāll need that extensive knowledge to help her manage her team. In general, she is resting longer and traveling slower than the teams around her. Thereās still several hundred miles of trail left. Itās also conceivable she work her team through whatever it is and finish in a stronger position - but based on the data we have at this point, she is just maintaining her team.
Riley Dyche
Riley has one of my favorite dog teams to watch moving down the trail. He has put together a team that moves with beautiful fluidity ā but heās had to carefully manage them this race. It doesnāt seem like he has enough steam to make a push but his conservative approach now could play out well for him further down the trail.
Travis Beals (our team)
One of the things I admire most about my partner, is how in tune he gets with his team. Heās run a smart race and adjusted his strategy early on in the race to account for the trail conditions which differed so wildly from what he trained in. Travis still has 14 dogs and has been posting really solid run times. Deep, drifting snow and warm temperatures, however, made his run into Anvik challenging. That being said, the last video I saw of the team coming into Grayling, they looked loose and limber. In general, his team seems to be performing better now than at the start of the race. Heāll likely keep working towards higher placement.
šø by Whitney McLaren Photography of Travis Beals on the 2025 Knik 200.
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