01/21/2025
❄️ Winter Storm Update: Well, I guess some people have been doing the major snow dance because the model trends today for accumulating snow across parts of Eastern/Coastal NC have been much more favorable. That NW trend I talked about has been happening today. Models are struggling with this system, so I am still being conservative on the snowfall totals, as there are some models that show higher amounts across Eastern NC. So some spots, especially along the Outer Banks could end up with more snow.. I have taken a cautious approach to this storm; no reason to cause panic days in advance, and I've tried to explain to you the solutions the last few days. That being said, I've decided to increase my snowfall amounts for areas along and east of Interstate i-95, most of Eastern and Coastal NC. As usual, it’s not easy to get snow in North Carolina outside of the immediate mountains; a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen. Any snow that does fall will stick to everything quickly, and temperatures will be below freezing the whole event. So, just a little bit of snow will cause widespread travel problems across Eastern NC.
Since my forecast update this morning, I've adjusted my forecast map to increase snowfall totals across Eastern/Coastal NC more accumulating snow now appears more likely than my first thinking. I was very conservative on the first forecast.
👀 WHAT
-As I’m sure many of y’all are aware, I’m very careful about sharing information and want to keep it as accurate as possible. I don’t believe in fluff, hype, or clicks. I’m just here to help you and save lives. A low-pressure system will slide southeast off the Southeast Coastline through the day on Tuesday, bringing some limited moisture to parts of Eastern NC. One thing that is for sure a guarantee is cold air; it'll be very cold. There is no question about that; any snow that does end up falling will stick easily, thanks to very cold temperatures. Based on the NW trends today, more moisture appears likely across Eastern North Carolina, thus I think more snow is coming.
Snowfall Amounts: This does appear to be a slightly more impactful winter storm for Eastern/Coastal NC, so I expect travel problems to start tomorrow night and last on and off through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Light Blue (Flakes to Dusting if you're lucky) This area is one of the biggest wildcards, I expect some snow to overspread this area, so I do think some accumulation of snow is possible from basically Raleigh/Greensboro/Charlotte east some flakes are possible to maybe some accumulating snow. There will probably be some travel impacts, especially as you go east in the light blue area. I have lower than usual confidence in this area, small shifts in the low track can lead to more snow or less to no snow. Something we will watch. Just telling you exactly how it is.
Dark Blue: (Dusting to 2 inches) Areas mainly along and East of i-95 have the best chance of seeing accumulating snowfall of more than an inch. There will likely be bands in the dark blue that'll see 1-2 inches of snow, with some locally higher spots as you approach the coast.
Turquoise: (2-4 inches) A rare snowfall along the coastal areas is likely. Several inches of snow will likely be along parts of Eastern/Coastal NC, into the Outer Banks, and down south, too. This should be really cool to see for the beaches and Eastern NC, I am rooting for the snow lovers; it has been years.
Hazardous travel will be likely regardless of the amount of snow that falls, ground temperatures are cold and snow will stick.
-TIMING: Snow will start Tuesday late afternoon /evening and be on and off until early Wednesday morning.
If you must drive, here are 3 tips for snowy roads: 1️⃣ Slow down, 2️⃣ Increase following distance, 3️⃣ Avoid sudden braking. Stay safe! 🚗❄️
Getting stuck is no fun. Keep a winter emergency kit in your car: blankets, flashlight, snacks, water, and a phone charger. Be prepared! 🧣🚨
Clear snow off your vehicle before driving! Snow can reduce your visibility and fly off, endangering other drivers. 🧹🚗
The Bottom Line: The odds of the first significant snowfall for Eastern/Coastal NC is increasing, there has been a good amount of shifting in the models today. We will watch to see if those trends continue, and when I do my final snow map in the morning, I'll update it if needed. I would prepare now for impacts to businesses, roads, schools, and anything that requires travel to parts of Central/Eastern/Coastal NC Tuesday evening through Wednesday and other impacts lasting in harder-hit areas into the end of the week. If you've been following me for several days, this setup looks more like scenario B. Forecasting winter weather in North Carolina is far from easy; many factors must come together. Forecasts always have high bust potential here in NC; I’ve spent hours going through data, looking at the atmosphere, and using some experience from past storms to make this forecast. I'll monitor the trends on the forecast over the next 24 hours and update accordingly.
-Ethan
