24/10/2024
WEATHER UPDATE ~ Yellow Tropical Cyclone Signal ( #2) over almost whole of Luzon due to STS Kristine (5:00 AM / October 25, 2024)
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TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 25
Severe Tropical Storm (TRAMI)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 25 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“KRISTINE” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA WEST OF NORTHERN LUZON
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 125 km West Northwest of Bacnotan, La Union (17.1°N, 119.3°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, the northern portion of Cavite (Ternate, Maragondon, Naic, Tanza, City of General Trias, Rosario, Cavite City, Noveleta, Kawit, Imus City, Bacoor City), the northern portion of Rizal (Cainta, Taytay, Angono, San Mateo, Rodriguez, Tanay, City of Antipolo, Baras, Teresa, Morong), and the northern portion of mainland Quezon (General Nakar)
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes, the rest of Rizal, the rest of Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, Dumaran, San Vicente) including Calamian, Cuyo, and, Kalayaan Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, the northern and central portions of Sorsogon (Castilla, Magallanes, Pilar, Casiguran, Donsol, Juban, Gubat, City of Sorsogon, Prieto Diaz, Bulan), and the northern and central portions of Masbate (City of Masbate, Uson, Dimasalang, Mobo, Cawayan, Aroroy, Balud, Mandaon, Milagros, Baleno) including Ticao and Burias Islands
Visayas
Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, and the northwestern portion of Iloilo ((Lambunao, Calinog, Bingawan, Janiuay, City of Passi)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 26 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
• Tomorrow (26 October): Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
• Sunday (27 October): Palawan, Romblon, Visayas, Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 12 issued at 2:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 11 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan
o Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; the seaboards of Cagayan Valley and Bataan
o Up to 5.0 m: The western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro; the seaboard of northern Aurora
o Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of Calamian Islands
o Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 4.0 m: The western seaboards of northern Palawan including Kalayaan Islands
o Up to 3.5 m: The remaining western seaboards of Palawan; the western seaboard of Antique, the western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental, the remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands
o Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
o Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
o Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to move west northwestward to westward over the next 48 hours and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region this afternoon.
• In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein KRISTINE will be looping over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday and Monday and move generally eastward towards the general direction of the PAR region. However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the tropical cyclone east of the PAR region.
• KRISTINE is forecast to undergo a short period of intensification as it moves over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
