07/02/2021
To get sandbags or wait? Definitely not up for another Eta! Although a few repairs from “her” are unfinished so…
Hurricane Elsa thoughts:
1. Well that escalated quickly, didn't it? In spite of the very fast forward speed, Elsa found a burst of energy and intensified into a minimal hurricane. Still, the storm is not very organized as it continues to race WNW. Fast storms are usually not prone to rapid development.
2. Where do we go from here? No changes from yesterday. The key to whether or not Elsa will impact Florida is about 36 hours away. Late on Saturday, the storm will reach the edge of the ridge that is driving it. When this happens, Elsa will slow down and start to turn.
3. What does that mean? At that point, if the Euro is right, that turn will take Elsa over the mountainous parts of Hispaniola and pretty much kills the storm. (New model runs can change this scenario, of course). The GFS keeps Elsa going more West without brushing land until it reaches Cuba. We just won't know until that turn occurs. The NHC says itself, "this is a low confidence forecast regarding track".
4. Bottom line. This is very important. Even if Elsa "splits the needle" and stays South of the Islands and North of Jamaica, it will still eventually hit Cuba. This will weaken it. That's exactly why the NHC keeps Elsa at a Tropical Storm after passing Cuba and approaches Florida.
5. So, here's where we are. Look at the margin of error in the map posted. It's several hundred miles east and west of Florida. Any tropical system has its worst winds within about 20 or 30 miles from the center. In spite of the scary map, this is by no means set in stone. And even if this plays out exactly as shown, (which is unlikely), that's a Tropical Storm moving through the area, not a hurricane. Many of us remember ETA, so we won't dismiss a tropical storm, but this setup is very different from ETA. Not desirable, but we've certainly seen worse.
6. What do we do now? Well, if you haven't put together hurricane supplies, now is the time. Because we both know a lot of folks have waited to do so. We may, or may not, need them, but at least we'll be ready in case Elsa impacts us directly.
7. Lastly, Rule #7. This is NOT "freak out" time. This is the time to do what you need to prepare yourself in case Elsa comes calling. But at the end of the day, let's deal with facts, not hype. This track is a LONG way from being locked down.
